Josh Allen is not playing the best ball of his career right now, and the Bills are in a pretty precarious position entering Week 11, sitting at 5-5, two games back of the AFC East lead and in ninth place in the AFC right now.
That's not where anyone expected this team to be, but it's probably time to recalibrate expectations. The Bills defense was put in some awful situations by a bunch of turnovers Monday night, but they've struggled for the past few weeks while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that's the biggest issue here. However, there's another issue here: The Bills just don't have a lot of playmakers right now.
That was especially evident Monday, with Stefon Diggs locked in a battle with Patrick Surtain II and James Cook bafflingly benched for much of the first quarter after his first fumble of the season. With the Broncos' All-World corner limiting Diggs and the Bills' coaching staff keeping their best running back on the bench to teach him a lesson, the Bills really struggled to move the ball, and Allen was forced to throw into increasingly tight windows to try to move the ball. It didn't work out, and Ken Dorsey paid the price, as the Bills offensive coordinator was fired Tuesday morning.
None of that is to excuse Allen, who turned the ball over three times and could have had at least one more early on in the game. He didn't play well. But the Bills have a very thin margin for error right now, and they don't really have many players to step up when Diggs isn't dominating. Thank God for Dalton Kincaid, at least.
Week 11 finished with the sixth of six last-minute, game-winning field goals, so it was an exciting week overall, even if it continued 2023's theme of weirdly disjointed action from a lot of offenses -- Buffalo's included. Now, we've got the Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams back from their bye weeks, so hopefully it's not too much to ask for a bit more fireworks across the board this week.
We're starting our Week 11 prep in today's newsletter with Jamey Eisenberg's breakdown of the top waiver-wire options, plus my initial rankings for the week, along with my thoughts on the biggest question for each position. Let's get to it:
My Week 11 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE
➕Top Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets
One thing to keep in mind as you prep for the waiver run tonight: Injuries are really going to matter. At least three of Jamey Eisenberg's top targets for Week 11 on the wire have pretty significant injury situations to keep an eye on. The injuries these players have sustained could dramatically influence how aggressive we need to be when bidding on them, so make sure you check the news Tuesday night before locking any bids in. Here are Jamey's top-five targets for Week 11:
Jamey Eisenberg's top targets
- Noah Brown, WR, Texans (43%) -- I genuinely don't know what to do with Brown, who has 325 yards over the past two games after having just 555 in 16 games last season. He's tied to a QB playing at an exceptionally high level right now, but Brown also has just a 17.2% target share over the past two games, and he probably isn't going to keep catching 93% of his passes for 25 yards per catch. I don't want to take too much away from Brown, who really has been terrific, but it's just hard to see how this is sustainable, especially with Nico Collins having missed one of those two games. He's shown too much big-play potential recently to ignore, but I'm not planning to blow my FAB budget on Brown, or anything.
- Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings (14%) -- I think I'm probably going to make Chandler my top target in FAB this week, because there's a chance he's not just starting for the Vikings in Week 11, but has a path to Fantasy relevance the rest of the way. Alexander Mattison's hold on the Vikings job has been remarkably strong despite some pretty disastrous results. It helps that the other Vikings backs haven't exactly been much better, but Chandler may have a chance to change that in Week 11 against a very vulnerable Broncos run defense if Mattison's concussion keeps him out. I'm not saying he's going to just run away with this job, but the door could be open to Chandler emerging as the lead back if he shines.
- Devin Singletary, RB, Texans (56%) -- We don't know how close Dameon Pierce is to returning, as he hasn't been able to practice since suffering an ankle injury in Week 8. If Pierce is back this week, there's not much to get excited about with an RB in a committee on an offense that generally hasn't run the ball well. But, if Pierce isn't able to play this week again, Singletary would be the clear lead back in a plus matchup against the Cardinals, and should be a top-20 RB.
- Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots (56%) -- I'm not quite sure I see much more than WR3 upside for Douglas in this offense, and even his best showing in Week 10 includes a fairly sizeable asterisk: 30 of his 84 yards came on a basically meaningless catch-and-run at the end of the first half. Still, he's a young player who seems to have pretty clearly emerged as the top target in his passing game, and I never want to be too certain about a young player's ceiling. However, if the Patriots could even be, like, the 23rd-best passing offense in the NFL, Douglas could be a really valuable player. That doesn't seem all that likely, but it's certainly not impossible, and we should always be trying to chase ceiling outcomes.
- Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (33%) -- The breakout hasn't happened for Johnston, who still doesn't have more than 50 yards in any game so far. But, with Mike Williams out for the season and Josh Palmer still on IR, the only path to unlocking some upside in this passing game beyond Keenan Allen is still through the talented rookie. He found the end zone for the first time last week and has played more than 80% of the snaps in each of the past two games, so the opportunity is there to keep growing. With so few obvious, must-have waiver targets out there, Johnston remains one of the better upside stashes if you have a roster spot to play with.
My Week 11 Rankings
Week 11 QB Rankings
Biggest question:Can you count on Kyler Murray as your starter the rest of the way?
Murray had an exciting debut, leading the Cardinals to a last-minute win over the Falcons, but it wasn't exactly a tremendous Fantasy game. He finished as QB14 in Week 10, but with just 17.3 points, it was just a decent game.
But it's worth keeping in mind, it was Murray's first game in nearly a year, and his first game in a new offense, period. And, while he didn't have any passing touchdowns, Murray did have a couple of near misses – once on a pass in the end zone to Marquise Brown that he just overthrew, and then later when a Michael Wilson touchdown was ruled just short on replay. We're talking about a pretty different outcome if either of those plays had found the end zone, and Murray would have been a top-five finish.
Of course, every player has close calls, so we can't just give Murray credit for that. I do think he looked good enough in Week 10 to have faith in Murray as a starting option moving forward, but I'm not ready to just dump every other QB on my roster to roll with him moving forward. This week, for instance, I will be starting Jared Goff against the Bears ahead of Murray against the Texans in one league where I have both.
However, Murray did look quite good in his debut, especially as a scrambler, which was my biggest question for his first game back. Murray is QB13 for me this week in what could be a shootout against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. If you took the flier on him before his return, it looks like that is going to pay off for you.
- Patrick Mahomesvs. PHI
- Jalen Hurts@KC
- Josh Allenvs. NYJ
- Lamar Jacksonvs. CIN
- Tua Tagovailoa vs. LV
- Dak Prescott @CAR
- Jared Goff vs. CHI
- Justin Herbert@GB
- Sam Howell vs. NYG
- C.J. Stroud vs. ARI
- Joe Burrow@BAL
- Joshua Dobbs @DEN
Week 11 RB Rankings
Biggest question: Is Saquon Barkley still a must-start RB?
Things are impossibly bleak for the Giants right now. They're 9.5-point underdogs against the Commanders for Week 11, and that gives them the lowest implied point total of the week at just 14 points … and that's a dramatic improvement over Week 10, when their implied total was just 11.25.
Expectations are rightly very, very low for this offense, and there's no way you can rely on any of the pass-catchers in an offense where Tommy DeVito passed for just 86 yards last week and targeted 10 different players. Washington is typically a matchup we're looking to take advantage of – the Seahawks had their breakout as a passing game last week against them, as hoped – but there's just no one on the Giants we can really look to, to take advantage of that.
That being said, it's going to be really hard to get away from Barkley. Even as a 10-point underdog, Barkley projects for 15-plus carries, and he'll have a role in the passing game too. It's going to be tough to be efficient in this offense, but he's actually put together a couple of good games with DeVito already, including 14.3 PPR points in Week 9 and 15.8 in Week 8. This is a miserable offense right now, and it severely limits Barkley's chances of getting into the end zone. But I'd have to be truly stacked at RB to consider sitting Barkley, who is still a top-24 RB for me in Week 10 … though, for the first time all season, just barely.
- Christian McCaffreyvs. TB
- Josh Jacobs@MIA
- Austin Ekeler@GB
- Travis Etiennevs. TEN
- Jahmyr Gibbsvs. CHI
- Rachaad White@SF
- D'Andre Swift@KC
- Breece Hall@BUF
- Derrick Henry@JAX
- James Conner@HOU
- David Montgomeryvs. CHI
- Joe Mixon@BAL
- Aaron Jonesvs. LAC
- Isiah Pachecovs. PHI
- Javonte Williamsvs. MIN
- Tony Pollard@CAR
- James Cookvs. NYJ
- Raheem Mostertvs. LV
- Kenneth Walker@LAR
- Devin Singletaryvs. ARI
- Jerome Fordvs. PIT
- Saquon Barkley@WAS
- Gus Edwardsvs. CIN
- Ty Chandler@DEN
Week 11 WR Rankings
Biggest question:How many WRs can you trust right now?
Fewer than you might think, though it depends on how you define "trust." If you mean it as a guy I expect to score 15-plus points every week, it might only be about a dozen names, maybe even fewer.
For instance, is Davante Adams in that group? He hasn't reached that 15-point mark since Week 4, though he did just fall short in Week 10, with 14.6. I would count him, because I still think he's one of the best target earners in the league. With anything like normal efficiency and pass volume, he's going to get to 15 points on most weeks. That being said, I can definitely see why you would be skeptical that he'll see either normal efficiency or volume in this offense.
If we define "trust" more broadly, obviously the number of names grows. But even there, it's hard to say guys like Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, or Deebo Samuel, to name just three, are really players I feel confident I can trust. I think I can trust Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, especially with Matthew Stafford expected to play this week. I don't feel especially confident in Nacua given the fact that out of four games, he's had just one game where he's recorded double-digit PPR points since Kupp's return, while Kupp has just two. With Stafford playing through a thumb injury, how certain should we be that he can sustain two must-start Fantasy wide receivers?
Not very certain at all! And yet, both are top-15 WRs for me in Week 10. Because there just aren't many wide receivers I really feel certain about. Outside of the top 10 or so at the position, it feels like there's a pretty big blob at WR, with not much separating the WR2 types from the WR3/4s, and I might be tinkering a lot between now and Thursday's first lineup locks.
So, if you disagree with where I have someone like DeAndre Hopkins or Brandon Aiyuk ranked right now, don't worry -- I might disagree with it too before long.
- Tyreek Hill vs. LV
- Ja'Marr Chase@BAL
- Stefon Diggsvs. NYJ
- CeeDee Lamb@CAR
- Keenan Allen@GB
- AJ Brown @KC
- Amon-Ra St. Brownvs. CHI
- Garrett Wilson@BUF
- Davante Adams@MIA
- Jaylen Waddlevs. LV
- Mike Evans@SF
- Cooper Kupp vs. SEA
- Puka Nacuavs. SEA
- Terry McLaurinvs. NYG
- Devonta Smith@KC
- Christian Kirkvs. TEN
- Adam Thielenvs. DAL
- Amari Coopervs. PIT
- Deebo Samuelvs. TB
- Brandon Aiyukvs. TB
- Tank Dell vs. ARI
- DeAndre Hopkins@JAX
- Chris Godwin@SF
- Jordan Addison@DEN
Week 11 TE Rankings
Biggest question:Is Trey McBride a must-start TE?
If you watched the Cardinals play Sunday, it was hard not to get excited about McBride. Friend of FFT Ben Gretch, in his excellent Stealing Signals Newsletter Monday, had this to say about McBride: "If you hadn't seen anything but this game, you'd think he was a Travis Kelce-level TE."
It's a lofty comparison, and almost certainly an unfair one, but that's definitely what it felt like watching McBride put together an eight-catch, 131-yard performance. He showed some deep chops on a few plays, but was also clearly the No. 1 read on most of his targets, including a few plays that were clearly schemed up to get him the ball quickly, a great sign for a tight end, where even a few extra targets per game can be the difference between a touchdown-or-bust and one of the true must-start guys at the position.
McBride looks like a must-start player right now, with two games of at least eight catches and 95 yards in his last three outings. The lone exception was the Clayton Tune game where the Cardinals had just 58 passing yards, which I'm definitely not going to count against him. McBride was a good prospect who had a fairly decent rookie season, but with the Cardinals looking more competent than expected and none of their non-Marquise Brown secondary options stepping up, the pathway is clear for him to be a must-start option moving forward … assuming Zach Ertz's return from IR doesn't spoil it. I don't expect it will, but that's the biggest, and possibly only, concern I have with McBride at this point.
- Travis Kelcevs. PHI
- TJ Hockenson @DEN
- Mark Andrewsvs. CIN
- Sam LaPortavs. CHI
- Dalton Kincaid vs. NYJ
- Trey McBride @HOU
- Evan Engramvs. TEN
- George Kittlevs. TB
- Dalton Schultzvs. ARI
- Cole Kmet@DET
- Jake Ferguson@CAR
- David Njokuvs. PIT
